Cellular IoT Connections Grew 24% in 2023, Now 21% of Global IoT Deployments

Cellular IoT Share and Growth Reframe RFP Decisions

Cellular IoT connections grew 24% year-on-year in 2023, reaching 21% of the global 16.6 billion connected IoT devices, according to IoT Analytics' updated State of IoT tracker. That growth rate—faster than the overall 15% device growth—matters because it shifts the risk calculus for enterprises choosing connectivity standards in RFPs for deployments with 10–15 year lifecycles.

For buyers, the immediate impact is architectural: a protocol growing at 24% annually with a rising share of total connections creates a stronger quantitative basis to favor 3GPP-based standards—LTE-M, NB-IoT, 4G/5G RedCap—over proprietary LPWAN when coverage is adequate. The data undermines the position of vendors pitching LoRaWAN or Sigfox purely on cost grounds, because ecosystem velocity and long-term support correlate directly with connection volumes.

The forecast compounds the argument. IoT Analytics projects 18.8 billion devices by end of 2024 (13% growth) and 40 billion by 2030. For an enterprise planning to deploy tens of thousands of sensors or trackers in utilities, industrial, or logistics applications, that growth trajectory supports assumptions about ongoing module pricing competition, roaming availability, and platform longevity. A connectivity standard with 24% annual growth and backing from global MNOs is materially less likely to face obsolescence risk than a niche protocol dependent on a handful of network operators.

Three Standards Dominate, Cellular Gaining on Wi-Fi and Bluetooth

IoT Analytics explicitly identifies Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and cellular IoT as the three dominant connectivity technologies worldwide. Within cellular, the 24% growth rate signals momentum for LTE-M and NB-IoT versus proprietary LPWAN, even though LoRaWAN and Sigfox remain relevant in specific verticals with limited MNO coverage.

This strengthens the hand of MNOs and global IoT MVNOs building on 4G/5G, LTE-M, and NB-IoT. Omdia's separate market landscape on alternative IoT operators shows those challengers growing, but competing against a rapidly expanding cellular base. For buyers, that means proprietary LPWAN vendors face structural pressure: their networks must scale faster than 24% annually just to maintain share, and most do not.

The competitive dynamic affects vendor risk and RFP language. Enterprises can now justify stricter requirements that devices and connectivity platforms support standardized 3GPP LPWAN (LTE-M/NB-IoT) and fallback to 4G/5G to avoid vendor lock-in. The connectivity mix data supports including multi-bearer modules—LTE-M + NB-IoT + 2G fallback—in device specs to ensure future network support. The growth numbers strengthen the argument that such modules will remain in volume production and get cheaper over time, because component manufacturers follow volume.

Enterprise IoT Market Forecast Supports Multi-Year Connectivity Contracts

Market.US forecasts the enterprise IoT market will reach $1.82 trillion by 2032, implying a 13.5% CAGR from 2023 through 2032. That forecast—focused on enterprise, not consumer IoT—is being used in vendor and buyer business cases as a baseline for connectivity-led IoT growth.

A 13.5% enterprise CAGR out to 2032 supports multi-year contracts with global eSIM/IoT SIM providers, private 5G/Wi-Fi 7 infrastructure investments, and lifecycle management tools. It also signals vendor viability: a near-$1.8 trillion market by 2032 makes it unlikely that large cloud and telco vendors exit the space, lowering long-term support risk for mainstream standards like 5G, LTE-M, NB-IoT, and Wi-Fi 6/7.

For buyers, the risk is inverse: niche protocol vendors and proprietary stacks may be acquired or shuttered if they cannot capture meaningful share of a high-growth market. Enterprises should test smaller connectivity vendors' assumptions about addressable market and runway against this macro forecast, and pressure them to explain how they will remain viable if cellular IoT continues to grow at 24% annually.

What to Watch: Connection Mix Drives Pricing and Lock-In Risk

GSMA Intelligence projects enterprise's share of total IoT connections will rise from 65% in 2030 to 69% by 2035, with smart buildings forecast at roughly 15% CAGR. That segment mix matters because smart buildings have long device lifecycles and dense deployments, favoring standardized protocols with multi-vendor ecosystems over single-source LPWAN.

Enterprises piloting or expanding IoT deployments in 2024–2025 should re-benchmark connectivity options against the 21% cellular share and 24% growth rate. If a proprietary LPWAN proposal cannot demonstrate a path to comparable ecosystem velocity, the protocol obsolescence risk outweighs any marginal cost advantage. The cellular IoT data gives buyers quantitative evidence to favor 3GPP standards in RFPs, tighten vendor lock-in language, and justify multi-bearer module requirements to future-proof device fleets.